Global stocks fall on U.S.-China trade spat, oil rises

Posted June 22, 2018

Meanwhile, Middle East OPEC producers and Russian Federation can quickly boost crude production by around 1.5 million b/d to make up for Venezuela's increasing output loss as well as the potential decline in Iranian oil output when United States sanctions are implemented.

Analysts expect the group to consider an increase in production of about 1 million barrels a day, ending the output cut agreed on in 2016.

US sanctions will contribute to Iran and Venezuela potentially losing nearly 30 percent of their oil output next year, requiring extra supplies from the group's Gulf members, the International Energy Agency said last week.

Thus, if OPEC does nothing but sit on the current production agreement, the declining production from some key producers and infrastructure constraints in the U.S. could see oil prices spike again.

Next Friday could be a tipping point for the large tanker market because much of the extra oil produced as a result of raising or lifting production curbs would be long-haul crude shipped from terminals in the Gulf to the east and west, creating a significant hike in tonne-mile demand and absorbing a chunk of today's excess VLCC capacity.

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Lower crude oil prices are of course helpful for India.

Adding to the tensions, Iran and Venezuela continued to insist that OPEC on Friday debate US sanctions against the two countries, but the organisation's secretariat has rejected their requests, according to letters seen by Reuters.

Demand growth has surprised market watchers on the upside in the past two years, with annual increases exceeding 1.5 percent.

As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepares to meet later this week in Vienna, tension is rising among some of the cartel's biggest members on what is said to be one of OPEC's biggest decisions since its establishment.

Continuing "security" issues in Iraq, Nigeria and Libya and underinvestment by Mexico and Angola have impacted their output. The rise in Oil price is due to the production cut in past few years by OPEC.

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U.S. President Donald Trump last week pushed ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, starting on July 6.

The agency noted that if the 2018 and 2019 forecast annual averages materialize, they would be the highest levels of production on record, surpassing the previous record set in 1970.EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will average 32.0 million b/d in 2018, a decrease of about 0.4 million bpd from the 2017 level.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research for ClipperData, says the Saudi oil minister has been signaling that a boost in production is coming.

Roberts said Opec could boost production by about a million barrels day fairly rapidly, but several Opec countries have problems. Some countries including Algeria, Iran and Venezuela said at the panel meeting that they still opposed an output increase, one of the sources said.

Whether they can convince those producers whose output is falling to accept an outcome where prices are lower than they might otherwise have been could have implications for not just near-term oil prices but the stability and effectiveness of OPEC in future.

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